It's been a tough January, following an even tougher 2009 for tourism, but for airlines like American, Delta and Continental, the numbers are looking better. Photo courtesy of K50 dude/Wikipedia Commons.
Yes, it’s true. Even though it’s only January, it’s been a hard, heavy winter rife with terrorist threats, failed security, crackdowns on security, gloomy hotel-stay news and just about everything bad a beleaguered travel sector could wish for—if it were masochistic, depressed and generally ready for the end.
But surprise, surprise, despite it all, these clouds do have a silver lining. Or better put, there does appear to be light at the end of the tunnel, simply because you, the traveler—or more specifically, the business traveler—has refused to be put off.
In short, with fourth quarter results beginning to trickle in, not only have the airlines beat Wall Street, but some airlines, such as U.S. Continental, have even turned in a profit at a time when the general world of hurt facing the industry would have seemed to make this unfeasible. Likewise, perennial favorite in the U.S. market, Southwest Airline, also posted a profit, and major airlines, such as Delta and American noted less-than-expected losses based on increased travel and rising ticket prices.
Of course, no one is saying that the road to recovery is going to be easy—or paved with gold. This is still an industry bruised not only by world-wide security issues, high fuel prices and a very cold winter, but also by a world-wide recession triggered by a nightmarish and, at least in form if not style, unprecedented banking meltdown.
On the other hand, the tiny bounce back is definitely better than you might think.
In fact, this slow bounce back—and airline representatives have repeated emphasized the word “slow”—has in the eyes of some proven the resilience of the business traveler and the sector as a whole. After all, if you were one of those to ask “how bad can it get?” at the beginning of 2009, you likely came close to having a heart attack by last August.
But what does this silver lining mean for you, the actual business traveler?
Apart from the fact that you may see gradually see a few more smiles on the grizzled faces of airline staff, it actually means that now you should need to be smarter than ever when it comes to booking and planning your business trips. A rebounding airline industry may be a sign of an improving world economy, but it also means that ticket prices are only going to keep increasing—especially as fuel costs show no signs of an immediate drop.
For example, Delta, which noted a small loss in the fourth quarter, but which beat analyst expectations by smart moves such as cutting loss-causing routes and/or flight numbers, still expects a hard recovery thanks to increased fuel prices, which the company is facing in most regions in the world. According to the Associated Press, the airline expects average fuel cost to rise to USD 2.22 a gallon in this quarter alone.
In short, Delta is not alone. And considering the plight of the industry world-wide—and the fact that airlines have long been fighting for their viability, if not their lives—expect such rising costs to be passed on to you, the consumer. And don’t expect another round of the heady days of yesteryear where low-cost airlines spurred the entire industry into price-war insanity that has crippled some players to this day.
Thus our advice is simple. Book that business trip now, well in advance—if you can. While some business trips are by definition spur-of-the-moment, important trade fairs and conferences are usually on the agenda months, if not a full year in advance. It may seem strange working December 2010’s fair into the first quarter budget, but over the long run, you will still get where you need to go, make your contacts, and most importantly, save money.
And if you happen to add your own tiny sparkle to what—in the world of business tourism anyway—should be 2010’s silver lining, well, there is something to be said for your role in good karma too.
Travel safe, travel smart, but keep traveling.
By Preston Smith
The writer can be reached at preston.smith@psiloc.com.
